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Analysing geopolitical trends is hard enough at the best of times.

Following President Trump's return to office in January, Mr Toikkanen says there's been a renewed interest in its products from European militaries in the wake of rising geopolitical tensions.

Sure, there may be some bumps along the way, such as when unexpected events like geopolitical conflicts or natural disasters cause investors to rush for the exits.

In Murmansk, the largest city north of the Arctic circle, President Vladimir Putin vowed to "strengthen Russia's global leadership in the Arctic", while warning that "geopolitical competition in the region" was intensifying.

But the relationship remains strained, and much will need to fall into place - bilaterally and more broadly geopolitically - for it to enjoy a true rapprochement.