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"Overoptimism is associated with overconfidence in many cases and investors who are overconfident tend to trade lottery-like stocks more. The research suggests weather relates to gambling preference and influences our judgment and choices. It also provides some guidance on investment decisions depending on weather conditions."

According to the authors this shows that reducing negative emotions can lessen overoptimism.

McMaster, who for 13 months was Trump’s national security adviser, worries that “the overoptimism that animated U.S. foreign policy in the 1990s” produced disappointment that has become a “retrenchment syndrome” and recapitulates the “come home, America” impulse during the nation’s Vietnam agony.

I may have gotten a bit tipsy with overoptimism in that warm conference hall decades back.

In recent days, Kerry has cautioned against overoptimism and warned that the talks could fail.