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Then, since they don’t use any actual method or research for those judgments, it’s entirely their seat-of-the-pants opinion about what Americans would do.

In these journals — a collection of notebooks in Biden’s case — they confide to themselves, express raw opinions, trace even the humdrum habits of their day and offer seat-of-the-pants insight on monumental decisions of their time.

Beyond Trump’s built-in advantages, a massive and ongoing effort on his behalf in Iowa reflects the campaign’s realization - especially compared to his seat-of-the-pants 2016 effort - that turning out many thousands of Iowans to caucus on a cold January night requires intense organizing.

Beyond Trump’s built-in advantages, a massive and ongoing effort on his behalf in Iowa reflects the campaign’s realization — especially compared to his seat-of-the-pants 2016 effort — that turning out many thousands of Iowans to caucus on a cold January night requires intense organizing.

Unlike his seat-of-the-pants campaign in 2016, Trump’s team is using the candidate’s celebrity to draw interested Republicans and track interest in supporting him in the leadoff caucuses set for Jan. 15.